Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs picks, predictions: Who wins NFL playoff game?

Jeremy Cluff
Arizona Republic

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs play Sunday in an AFC divisional round NFL playoff game.

Which team will get the victory?

Check out these NFL playoff picks and predictions for the game, which can be seen at 4:30 p.m. MST on CBS and Paramount +.

The Chiefs are a 1.5-point favorite in the game.

NFL playoff picks: Divisional-round games

Pro Football Network: Bills 30, Chiefs 27

Ben Rolfe writes: "What a game we have to close out the Divisional Round! The Bills and Chiefs both looked superb, dismissing their opponents on Wild Card Weekend. Last year in the Divisional Round, the Chiefs came out on top somewhat dominantly. However, the Bills are a much more well-rounded team this season. Buffalo has the players on both sides of the ball to frustrate the Chiefs. We saw how capable the Bills are of moving the ball through the air and on the ground. Additionally, their defense squeezed the Patriots in a humiliating victory. Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ defense looked less convincing against the Steelers. Buffalo has built a team that is more than capable of going into Arrowhead and coming away with a victory."

Fox Sports: Chiefs will beat Bills

Geoff Schwartz writes: "Mahomes is now 7-2 in the playoffs, with his two losses coming against Tom Brady. I think the Chiefs win close."

College Football News: Chiefs 31, Bills 27

Pete Fiutak writes: "Buffalo was great this year against the mediocre offenses – or the relatively one-dimensional ones – and had problems with the attacks with talent. Four turnovers were the difference in the first meeting, and Kansas City doesn’t give it away anymore. Everyone will be waiting for firepower, but don’t be stunned if this is a wee bit of a defensive fight until late."

NFL playoff odds: Divisional-round games

Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Buffalo Bills in their NFL playoff game Sunday?

Five Thirty Eight: Chiefs have a 65% win probability

The site gives the Bills a 35% win probability in the NFL playoff game.

Sportsnaut: Bills will take down Chiefs

Matt Johnson writes: "Everyone is expecting a shootout. These two teams combined for 58 points in their prior meeting this season and this matchup projects to be a lot closer than the 38-20 final from Week 5. Of course, there is also recent postseason history between Kansas City and Buffalo. Allen wants revenge for the 38-24 AFC title loss one year ago. We believe he’s going to get it. Buffalo finished the regular season with the highest pressure rate (30.8%) and the highest hurry rate (15.4%) in the NFL. Keep in mind, all of that was accomplished with defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier only sending a blitz 26% of the time (13th in NFL). Pressuring Mahomes without blitzing is how you make him look mortal.  Buffalo’s secondary, even without Tre’Davious White, is one of the best in the NFL. The Bills have the personnel to slow down a Chiefs’ offense that is often inconsistent by its own doing. With Kansas City’s leaky defense now facing Allen and Stefon Diggs, Buffalo gets its revenge."

Action Network: Lean with the Chiefs vs. Bills

Brandon Anderson writes: "When Mahomes is a three-point favorite or shorter (including an underdog), the Chiefs are 14-4-1 (78%) against the spread (ATS) lifetime, per our Action Labs data. They’ve won nine of the last 11  —  the two losses coming in the Super Bowl and that Bills game earlier this season. Maybe I’m still putting too much trust in the past, but I know what the Chiefs are, and I know what Mahomes can do. If I’m going down with the ship, this is a ship worth riding all the way to the bottom."

NFL playoff TV information: Divisional-round games

Reach Jeremy Cluff at jeremy.cluff@arizonarepublic.com. Follow him on Twitter @Jeremy_Cluff.

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